How to set realistic sales targets as a self-published author

I recently joined several Facebook groups for self-published authors thinking it would give me some good insight into the challenges that writers face and confirmation that my type of support is needed in this age of do-it-yourself publishing! 

Instead, it has actually made me really concerned at how many people are publishing their books without proofreading, editing, giving due consideration to cover design or thinking about how they are going to promote their book. I’ve lost count of the number of posts I’ve seen where the comments are along the lines of “I’ve published my book but no-one has bought it yet.” It appears that they think once the book is published, people will flock to buy it with very little marketing or promotion, save for some social media posts.

Just as a side note, I have been quite shocked at how many of these social media posts are filled with spelling and grammatical errors and this reflects really badly on the author – people may see these posts and think ‘if a social media post is written this badly, what is the book like?’ In fact, I have seen comments on these type of posts from other authors saying exactly that!

Publishing your first book is such an exciting milestone, but many authors make the mistake of setting unrealistic sales expectations. Without clear goals, it’s easy to feel discouraged if your book doesn’t instantly become a bestseller. Setting realistic sales goals can help you stay motivated, help you plan your marketing, and give you a clearer understanding of your book’s potential.

1. Understand Your Market

Before setting any sales targets for your first book, research your genre and competitors (see my last blog ‘Make or Break: Know Your Genre’) 

Look at similar self-published titles, their pricing, sales ranks, and how they are being marketed. Platforms like Amazon KDP provide sales rank data, which can give you a rough estimate of potential daily and monthly sales. Knowing what comparable books achieve will help you set achievable goals rather than relying on hope alone.

2. Start Small and Build Momentum

For first-time authors, modest expectations are key. Selling 100–500 copies in the first few months is a realistic target. Early sales help build momentum: each copy sold contributes to visibility, reviews, and word-of-mouth promotion. Over time, this momentum can lead to higher sales and greater recognition in your niche.

3. Be Prepared to Market Your Book

No matter how great your writing is, a book won’t sell itself. Many new authors underestimate the importance of marketing when setting sales goals. Being prepared to promote your book—through social media, newsletters, launch events, or ads—will make the difference between selling a handful of copies and reaching your targets. Even something as simple as engaging with readers on Instagram by responding to their comments, joining book-related Facebook groups, or pitching your book to relevant blogs can significantly boost visibility.

It’s also helpful to create a marketing plan before your book launches. This doesn’t have to be complicated. It’s literally a plan for the couple of months before you publish and the three months after, listing what marketing actions you intend to take. You can’t do it all at once! By breaking it down into weekly or monthly actions, it will make it more manageable and less overwhelming.

Think about how you’ll build anticipation before publication —perhaps with a cover reveal, early reviews from beta readers, or pre-order incentives. Having a plan in place ensures that when your book is published, you’re not starting from scratch. The more prepared you are to market, the more realistic (and successful) your sales goals will be.

4. Break Goals into Manageable Milestones

Instead of focusing solely on total annual sales, create smaller, actionable milestones. These could include:

• Selling 50 copies per month
• Gaining 20 new reviews
• Reaching a certain Amazon rank in your category

Small milestones make progress easier to track, celebrate, and adjust as needed. They also keep you motivated while working toward long-term success.

6. Be Flexible and Adjust

Sales for self-published books can fluctuate due to seasonality, trends, or marketing efforts. Regularly review your results and adjust goals if necessary. If you’re exceeding targets, consider raising them slightly. If you’re falling short, analyse what is and isn’t working and recalibrate. Flexibility is key to sustainable growth as an indie author.

7. Focus on Success Beyond Numbers

Finally, remember that success isn’t only about sales even though that is probably your focus at the start! Building an audience, receiving positive feedback, and gaining confidence as a writer are equally valuable. Many bestselling authors began with modest sales that grew steadily over time. Your first book is the start of a journey, not a single event.

By researching your market and starting with achievable goals, you can approach your first book launch with confidence.

If you are looking for support on your writing journey, whatever the stage, I’m here to help. Call me on 07702 808137 or email liz@brilliantfish.co.uk